India-China –Russia Troika: Is It Possible?
Of late, a talk of suspicion and many eyebrows have been raised on the soon called India –China –Russia Troika at the international level among the international community. Even though all the three countries have vehemently denied this there seems to be some element of truth behind this. If this finally happens it would change the contours of the geo-political-strategic positioning and relationship of the Asia-Pacific countries . It might well give sleepless nights to the West and the United States of America in relation to its strategic and foreign policy with the Asia-Pacific .
India ‘s relationship with China has taken serious U- Turn in the last couple of years. With the bad memories of the 1962 war still in mind a thing like this to happen itself is significant. The ice was broken during the visit of the former late Prime Minister of India Rajeev Gandhi when he visited China followed by high delegations from China visiting India.
Coming of the NDA regime further warmed this relationship .The visit of the former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee into that country and his talks with the Chinese Head and the joint statement issued there after solidified this relationship further. This got quite reflected in the total BI-lateral trade of both the countries. The latest statistics and annual reports of both the countries on trade reflect this. Quotes of brief figures would prove this.
The India-China bilateral trade had set a new record with total trade touching US$13.6 billion in 2004 and India enjoying a comfortable trade surplus of $1.75 billion, the latest Chinese customs statistics indicates that India-China annual trade for 2004 increased 79% over the total trade volume of 2003, the customs figures showed.
Analysts argue the total trade figure achieved during 2004 was $3.6 billion more than expected at the beginning of the year, which indicates the huge potential that exists between the two fastest growing economies. During the January-December period of 2004, Indian exports to China grew by 80.5% to reach $7.68 billion. Meanwhile, India's imports from China registered 77.2% year-on-year growth to hit $5.93 billion. The trade balance for the year stood in India's favor at $1.75 billion.
The monthly trade volume recorded a yearly high of $1.44 billion, surpassing November's high of $1.32 billion. Indian exports to China in December touched $744 million and imports for the month reached $697 million with no significant change in the composition of the bilateral trade basket. Indian exports to China were dominated by iron ore.
With such huge economic benefits it is quite natural for both the countries to move ahead and it is with this rationale behind that both the countries are trying to expand its relationship further in a multi faceted manner. Change of regime in Delhi after 2004 hasn’t shifted the focus of the new UPA government towards China infact it has expanded further. The recent Defense Pact between the two countries proves this further In his recent five days visit to China the Indian defense minister Prang Mukherjee signed this historic pact Many eyebrows were raised in the international circles regarding this and about its aims and objectives. Whether this pact was aimed at any third country or not though both the countries have brushed aside such rumors. But such possibilities cannot be ruled out entirely
The signing of the memorandum of understanding (MOU) will be beneficial to the growth of China-India military relations and "will not target any third country", said Foreign Ministry spokesman Liu Jianchao at a press conference . The pact was signed by the visiting Indian Defense Minister Pranab Mukherjee and his Chinese counterpart Gen. Cao Gangchuan. The pact "provides a formal basis for the defense and military exchanges that have been taking place between the two countries in the last few years". Cao and Mukherjee held talks, pledging to deepen military relations further . China has pledged to step up strategic and cooperative relations with India in 2006, a year of friendship between the two countries, said the Chinese Foreign Minister Li Zhaoxing during a meeting with Mukherjee. Under the agreement “Military exchanges will be an important part of bilateral ties,” Mr Liu said.
Regarding the agreement the Indian Defense ministry had to say this “Reinforcement of mutual trust and exchanges will be beneficial for the development of all-round cooperation partnership in the two countries. the agreement would institutionalize training, exercises and other contacts between the armed forces of the two countries. The agreement would aim to develop a ‘strategic and cooperative partnership for peace and prosperity between India and China’, and enhance trust between their two militaries” The China Daily reported the agreement could become an instrument for a regular and sustained dialogue between Beijing and New Delhi on defense issues
During his visit Mr Mukherjee met Premier Wen Jiabao . He also visited military bases in Beijing and Shanghai and the Beijing Aerospace Command and Control Center. However the thorn to the warming Sino-Indian relationship is the border dispute which still needs to be solved .However both the countries agree that it should be solved respecting the sentiments of both the countries .
With India having age old historic ties with Russia based on solid foundation the emergence of warmer ties with China means a lot for this region . Already China and Russia have solved their age-old border disputes amicably with mutual respect and trust for each other . Sino –Russian trade is quite robust and is increasing steadfastly . In the year 2003-04 the annual trade between China and Russia was to the tuned of US $ 5 Billion which is a very good share in any country’s annual trade . With India having her maximum defense and military trade with Russia with Russia contributing 70 percent of India’s defense needs greater co operation between the three countries would assume great significance in future if it really works out
Russia's inability to impede the eastward expansion of NATO and its frustration over NATO's unilateral military action in Kosovo have forced Moscow to seek closer strategic understanding with China and India. Yevgeny Primakov of Russia was the first person to talk about a "strategic triangle" among Russia, China, and India which might still take time to materialize but it cannot be ruled out .It is a fact that each of these states is involved in a somewhat similar dynamics. Each is consolidating its relationship with the others, while also expanding its relations with the United States. In terms of strategic payoffs, this partnership will yield them, at a minimum, enhanced benefits of bilateral and trilateral cooperation with each other and, at a maximum, it can serve to neutralize the US influence in the Asia –pacific Region . This potential partnership could be a blueprint for the next Cold War and poses a threat that could affect the lives of everyone in the United States in a significant way and the United States of America is quite itchy about the unfolding Tri-lateral tie .
During President Putin’s visit in December 2003 a Russian defense deal of a multi billion US dollars was signed under which IL-78 Flight Refueling Aircrafts, Aircraft Carrier Admiral Gorshkov, IL-78 FRAs would be given to India by Russia . Under this agreement Russia would also sell to India the MiG-29K fighter Aircrafts for the aircraft carrier besides the sale and joint production of submarines and frigates .With such warm ties the emergence of a Troika cannot be ruled out .
A Trilateral meeting of the Heads of the three countries on the sidelines of the United Nation general assembly session in 2003 had raised a lot of heart burns among several western nations including the United States . Even though the then External Affairs Minister of India had brushed this aside as nothing but wanted assumptions saying the meeting had taken place to discuss global issues and cross-border terrorism concerning the three countries. The clarification was made during the question hour while replying to the supplementaries. The minister said, “this kind of meeting took 14 years to take place and no country was mentioned by name during the informal meeting, though the issue of terrorism in general figured in the discussions.” He further said “otherwise, it would have given the impression that we (India, Russia and China) are forming a group.” The Minister had also said then “The Foreign Ministers of India, Russia and China agreed to meet informally in the same format and in this informal meeting we did not bring up bilateral issues and only trilateral issues were discussed .The meeting also discussed globalization,”
The indirect acknowledgement of the Minister of discussing trilateral issues and issues of global concern reflects this unfolding axis between the Trio . With China and Russia cooperating on the Railway links and Oil Pipe line issue through Central Asia connecting the Caspian Sea with the Middle East and Europe . Russia has also shown keen interest on the Pipeline issue of India with Iran and Central Asia .Chances of the three countries joining hands on such common issues of mutual interest in future cannot be ruled out . American presence in Central Asia ,Afghanistan and in the former Soviet Republics like Georgia ,Ukraine etc has hastened the process further . The way things are unfolding in Central Asia the official acknowledgement of the a Troika or the official formation of it in near future cannot be ruled out . Such a Troika is also required for this region looking into its strategic and economic location .
Involvement and the special interest shown by the western powers specially the United states of America after the coming of the WTO and globalization in this region makes the necessity for the formation of such a power grouping all the more vital as this can neutralize the power domination of the West and the USA in this region as well as keep this region free from any kind of American domination which is of vital importance for the healthy development of Asia as a whole and for its overall security as outside presence in this area is not in its interest.
Dr Suvrokamal Dutta Contact: sk_dutta70@yahoo.com ( The Writer is a renowned foreign affairs and economic expert )
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